The murders of at least three prostitutes, and probably five, in Suffolk in a short space of time are tragic and worrying.  No doubt, all our condolences go to the families of those who have been murdered, and our concern is for the safety of other young girls who would seem to be under threat from a serial killer or killers.

Past Police Failures

The past record of the police in catching serial killers has not always been good.  In the case of the Yorkshire Ripper a lot of time was wasted and lives were lost as the police made a "simple mistake".  Assistant Chief Constable George Oldfield decided, using his gut feel, that the author of some handwritten letters and tape recordings was the Ripper.  But the letters later turned out to be a hoax.  During that time the real Yorkshire Ripper (Peter Sutcliffe) had been interviewed five times, but he was dismissed as a suspect because his voice/accent did not match that on the tapes (see http://www.bbc.co.uk/crime/caseclosed/yorkshireripper1.shtml for details).

This was a classic case of the type of simple mistake I discussed in my last blog: decisions were made on the basis of gut feel when they should have been made on the facts.

Avoiding the Same Mistakes

There were several examples in a press conference today to illustrate that the police do not intend to repeat that mistake again.  Detective Chief Superintendent Stewart Gull not only 'did the right thing at the right time' but explained to listening members of the press why he was doing it.

In the press conference - broadcast live on BBC 1 as well as the news channels - Mr Gull was asked several times to speculate.  For example, Kay Burley (of Sky News) asked him "What is your gut feel?  Will the killer strike again?".  But Mr Gull refused to speculate.  In fact, he ignored the question completely and explained why - by saying that his concern was to catch the killer.

Another journalist asked DCS Gull whether he thought he was chasing one killer or more than one.  Again, DCS Gull refused to speculate and gave his reasons in some detail:  there was a danger that if he expressed an opinion then it had the potential to undermine the prosecution's case when it came to court.

Later, on BBC 1's 1 O'Clock news, presenter Kate Silverton pressed Mr Gull even further for speculation:

Kate Silverton: "Do you have any theories?...".
Mr Gull replied: "We need to keep an open mind...".  And he went on to relay various facts about the investigation.
Kate Silverton: "But do you have any theories? Any theories?"
Mr Gull replied: "No."  And he again went on to relay various facts about the investigation.

What Makes the Police Successful?

For the police to be successful in catching and prosecuting criminals they need to make decisions based primarily on the facts.  Cases such as that of the Yorkshire Ripper show that if too much emphasis is given to gut feel or speculation they can end up chasing red herrings and the consequences can be failure.  In fact, for the women who were murdered, and their families, the consequences were disastrous.  This isn't to say that there is no role for speculation in police enquiries, but the primary basis for decision-making has to be fact.

Conclusion

The tragic case of the bungled Yorkshire Ripper investigation demonstrates in spades the principle that I discussed in my previous blog: to be successful one has to do the right thing at the right time.

It is a simple principle:  if success comes primarily from making decisions based on fact, then make decisions based on fact;  if success comes primarily from making decisions based on gut feel, then make decisions based on gut feel.

If Assistant Chief Constable George Oldfield had followed that principle in the late 1970s then Barbara Leach, Marguerite Walls, Jacqueline Hill and perhaps other, earlier, victims of the ripper would probably have been alive today.